What the future holds
24 August 2015
Like any other big city, London too is undergoing some changes due to the sheer volume of people that live here. In addition, cuts within the private/public sector(s) will continue to affect services in the years to come. H ere are some examples:
Population growth
- More than 9 million people will live in London by 2020.
- 3 million people living in London are foreign-born.
- London is home to more than 270 nationalities and 300 languages.
- The white British population has fallen by 620,000 in the last decade.
Crime
- While crime is at its lowest level for more than 30 years, demand for Police support is likely to grow faster.
- Rape and hate crimes are tracking up as more victims have the confidence to report them.
- Cyber crime is rising, costing several billion pounds a year and is considered a top threat to national security.
- Terrorism has become more complex, with hard to detect ‘lone wolf’ attacks an increasing concern and the arrest rate for terrorism rising quickly.
Austerity
- Plans that ring-fence health and education from budget cuts mean further cuts for policing and policing on a smaller budget will become the norm.
- The Met expects to have to find an extra £800 million in cost savings on tops of the £600 million already achieved.
- Without a pension tie, policing is no longer a lifelong career and many in the new generation expect to work for several employers in their lifetime.
Economic growth
- While employment will continue to grow in London, most commerce will be around high-value customers and business services for the global market.
- The workforce will be more precarious, with a greater reliance on state welfare and personal finance.
- Relative poverty and inequality will remain high.
- Lower-value economic activities like smaller businesses, warehousing, will be displaced from the capital.
- Gentrification will continue neighbourhood by neighbourhood.
- The consumer economy will become more diverse and non-stop.
Advancing technology
- Communication is going pure digital, pure mobile.
- Today’s teenagers only use voice calls for three per cent of their communication.
- In the UK, we spend and average of two hours a day using our smartphones.
- People are moving away from desktops and the web towards mobile apps.
- The next trend in computing is wearables: watches, eyewear, jewellery, clothing and more.
- The distinction between online and offline could disappear altogether.
Political change
- The general and mayoral elections will shape the political future.
- There may be a referendum on EU membership.
- Local authorities are likely to get new powers to control more of their own spending.
- Cross-borough integration of services is likely.
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